Anactivecommunity ofresearchers developsandenhances algorithms that learn causal models from data, and this work has produced a series of impressivetechnicaladvances.

This paper introduces a data-driven traffic microsimulation framework in CARLA that reconstructs real-world wave dynamics using high-fidelity time-space data from the I-24 MOTION testbed. Calibration of road networks in microsimulators to reproduce ephemeral phenomena such as traffic waves for large-scale simulation is a process that is fraught with challenges. This work reconsiders the existence of the traffic state data as boundary conditions on an ego vehicle moving through previously recorded traffic data, rather than reproducing those traffic phenomena in a calibrated microsim. Our approach is to autogenerate a 1 mile highway segment corresponding to I-24, and use the I-24 data to power a cosimulation module that injects traffic information into the simulation. The CARLA and cosimulation simulations are centered around an ego vehicle sampled from the empirical data, with autogeneration of "visible" traffic within the longitudinal range of the ego vehicle. Boundary control beyond these visible ranges is achieved using ghost cells behind (upstream) and ahead (downstream) of the ego vehicle. Unlike prior simulation work that focuses on local car-following behavior or abstract geometries, our framework targets full time-space diagram fidelity as the validation objective. Leveraging CARLA's rich sensor suite and configurable vehicle dynamics, we simulate wave formation and dissipation in both low-congestion and high-congestion scenarios for qualitative analysis. The resulting emergent behavior closely mirrors that of real traffic, providing a novel cosimulation framework for evaluating traffic control strategies, perception-driven autonomy, and future deployment of wave mitigation solutions. Our work bridges microscopic modeling with physical experimental data, enabling the first perceptually realistic, boundary-driven simulation of empirical traffic wave phenomena in CARLA.

We survey the current practice in evaluation and show that the techniques we recommend are rarely used in practice.

We introduce a $\phi^{4}$ lattice field theory with frustrated dynamics as a multi-agent system to reproduce stylized facts of financial markets such as fat-tailed distributions of returns and clustered volatility. Each lattice site, represented by a continuous degree of freedom, corresponds to an agent experiencing a set of competing interactions which influence its decision to buy or sell a given stock. These interactions comprise a cooperative term, which signifies that the agent should imitate the behavior of its neighbors, and a fictitious field, which compels the agent instead to conform with the opinion of the majority or the minority. To introduce the competing dynamics we exploit the Markov field structure to pursue a constructive decomposition of the $\phi^{4}$ probability distribution which we recompose with a Ferrenberg-Swendsen acceptance or rejection sampling step. We then verify numerically that the multi-agent $\phi^{4}$ field theory produces behavior observed on empirical data from the FTSE 100 London Stock Exchange index. We conclude by discussing how the presence of continuous degrees of freedom within the $\phi^{4}$ lattice field theory enables a representational capacity beyond that possible with multi-agent systems derived from Ising models.

This paper revisits Menzerath's Law, also known as the Menzerath-Altmann Law, which models a relationship between the length of a linguistic construct and the average length of its constituents. Recent findings indicate that simple stochastic processes can display Menzerathian behaviour, though existing models fail to accurately reflect real-world data. If we adopt the basic principle that a word can change its length in both syllables and phonemes, where the correlation between these variables is not perfect and these changes are of a multiplicative nature, we get bivariate log-normal distribution. The present paper shows, that from this very simple principle, we obtain the classic Altmann model of the Menzerath-Altmann Law. If we model the joint distribution separately and independently from the marginal distributions, we can obtain an even more accurate model by using a Gaussian copula. The models are confronted with empirical data, and alternative approaches are discussed.

The process of developing theories and models and testing them with experiments is fundamental to the scientific method. Automating the entire scientific method then requires not only automation of the induction of theories from data, but also experimentation from design to implementation. This is the idea behind a robot scientist -- a coupled system of AI and laboratory robotics that has agency to test hypotheses with real-world experiments. In this chapter we explore some of the fundamentals of robot scientists in the philosophy of science. We also map the activities of a robot scientist to machine learning paradigms, and argue that the scientific method shares an analogy with active learning. We demonstrate these concepts using examples from previous robot scientists, and also from Genesis: a next generation robot scientist designed for research in systems biology, comprising a micro-fluidic system with 1000 computer-controlled micro-bioreactors and interpretable models based in controlled vocabularies and logic.

Predicting temporal patterns across various domains poses significant challenges due to their nuanced and often nonlinear trajectories. To address this challenge, prediction frameworks have been continuously refined, employing data-driven statistical methods, mathematical models, and machine learning. Recently, as one of the challenging systems, shared transport systems such as public bicycles have gained prominence due to urban constraints and environmental concerns. Predicting rental and return patterns at bicycle stations remains a formidable task due to the system's openness and imbalanced usage patterns across stations. In this study, we propose a deep learning framework to predict rental and return patterns by leveraging cartogram approaches. The cartogram approach facilitates the prediction of demand for newly installed stations with no training data as well as long-period prediction, which has not been achieved before. We apply this method to public bicycle rental-and-return data in Seoul, South Korea, employing a spatial-temporal convolutional graph attention network. Our improved architecture incorporates batch attention and modified node feature updates for better prediction accuracy across different time scales. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in predicting temporal patterns and its potential applications.

Experience replay (ER) used in (deep) reinforcement learning is considered to be applicable only to off-policy algorithms. However, there have been some cases in which ER has been applied for on-policy algorithms, suggesting that off-policyness might be a sufficient condition for applying ER. This paper reconsiders more strict "experience replayable conditions" (ERC) and proposes the way of modifying the existing algorithms to satisfy ERC. To this end, instability of policy improvements is assumed to be a key in ERC. The instability factors are revealed from the viewpoint of metric learning as i) repulsive forces from negative samples and ii) replays of inappropriate experiences. Accordingly, the corresponding stabilization tricks are derived. As a result, it is confirmed through numerical simulations that the proposed stabilization tricks make ER applicable to an advantage actor-critic, an on-policy algorithm. In addition, its learning performance is comparable to that of a soft actor-critic, a state-of-the-art off-policy algorithm.

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the scalability and parallelization of local search algorithms for the Satisfiability problem. We propose a framework to estimate the parallel performance of a given algorithm by analyzing the runtime behavior of its sequential version. Indeed, by approximating the runtime distribution of the sequential process with statistical methods, the runtime behavior of the parallel process can be predicted by a model based on order statistics. We apply this approach to study the parallel performance of two SAT local search solvers, namely Sparrow and CCASAT, and compare the predicted performances to the results of an actual experimentation on parallel hardware up to 384 cores. We show that the model is accurate and predicts performance close to the empirical data. Moreover, as we study different types of instances (random and crafted), we observe that the local search solvers exhibit different behaviors and that their runtime distributions can be approximated by two types of distributions: exponential (shifted and non-shifted) and lognormal.

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled approach for assessing the relative merits of competing computational models and propagating uncertainty into model selection decisions. However, BMC is often intractable for the popular class of hierarchical models due to their high-dimensional nested parameter structure. To address this intractability, we propose a deep learning method for performing BMC on any set of hierarchical models which can be instantiated as probabilistic programs. Since our method enables amortized inference, it allows efficient re-estimation of posterior model probabilities and fast performance validation prior to any real-data application. In a series of extensive validation studies, we benchmark the performance of our method against the state-of-the-art bridge sampling method and demonstrate excellent amortized inference across all BMC settings. We then showcase our method by comparing four hierarchical evidence accumulation models that have previously been deemed intractable for BMC due to partly implicit likelihoods. Additionally, we demonstrate how transfer learning can be leveraged to enhance training efficiency. We provide reproducible code for all analyses and an open-source implementation of our method.